RECENT PUBLICATIONS

Week 09 - 2017

Turkey - Social - 03/01/2017

Niveau 4

Several incidents between Turkish and Syrian nationals have been reported over the past few weeks, especially in the southern region, reflecting the local social tensions.

Analysis of GEOS:
A shootout between Turkish residents and Syrian refugees was reported in the Yuregir district in the province of Adana (south) on 02/27, resulting in 4 injured. The police then proceeded to the strengthening of the security measures in the area to avoid further violence. Moreover, 2 Turkish residents were hardly wounded with a knife on the evening of 02/18 in the Aydinlikevler district in the province of Konya (south) during a brawl with Syrian nationals. Furthermore, a group of 7 unidentified persons assaulted and injured with a knife a Syrian national on the evening of 02/26 in Konya (Province of Konya, south). Finally, 3 Syrians were arrested in Kayseri (Province of Kayseri, centre), after they killed a Turkish resident and wounded another following a disagreement on the access of a public place on 02/14. This event led to high local tensions, including the gathering of a hundred of residents who perpetrated lynching targeting Syrian people and ransacked several stores belonging to them. 
The hosting of about 3 millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, who fled the fighting since 2011, has contributed to the reinforcement of the social tensions especially in the southern and south-eastern regions of the country. The very fragile humanitarian situation and the pre-existing local economic difficulties have favoured the dissatisfaction of the population and the sectarian tensions. Moreover, the agreement signed in 2016 with the European Union, which led to a greater takeover by Turkey of a part of the Syrian refugees in exchange of a financial compensation, remains hardly implement on the local scale by the Turkish authorities. 
Therefore, the risk of collateral damage in the vicinity of sectarian violence should be taken into account, especially in the south of the country where it is recommended to stay prudent. Furthermore, the security situation remains degraded in the south-eastern provinces of Turkey and any unessential travel is strongly discouraged in this part of the country. If necessary, an adapted security escort is recommended. Moreover, it is advised on a general level to avoid any organised or spontaneous rallies and to comply with the injunctions of the security forces. Finally, it is necessary to stay politically neutral and discrete, especially in public places, in order not to arouse the hostility of the local population and its interlocutors.

 
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Week 07 - 2017

Angola – Cabinda – 02/16/2017

Niveau 3

The Cabinda State Liberation Front - Armed Forces of Cabinda (FLEC-FAC) claimed responsibility for several attacks targeting the Angolan army over the past few days, illustrating the high level of insecurity that prevails in this northwestern province landlocked between the two Congos.     
GEOS analysis:
The FLEC-FAC announced on February 15th that 9 members of the security forces were killed and several others injured following clashes in the localities of Bembica and Seva Tando-Macuco on February 14th, which also resulted in the dead of 2 of his fighters. Furthermore, the separatist movement forbidden the Angolan political parties from campaigning in the province as part of the general elections scheduled for next August, whose boycott it promotes. 
This announcement came a day after a similar statement, in which the FLEC-FAC claimed responsibility for the deaths of 18 government soldiers between February 3rd and 10th. On February 7th, the group also instructed all foreign economic actors from the timber industry operating in the Buco Zau, Miconje, Massabi and Belize regions to leave Cabinda without delay. It also prohibited all motorized travel through the Maiombe forest and specified that any vehicle escorted by the security forces would from now be regarded as a legitimate military target.
Generally, this oil-producing province remains affected by latent instability due to the independentism claims of the FLEC-FAC, resulting in sporadic armed attacks which mainly target the security forces. According to separatist sources, at least fifty Angolan soldiers died during such clashes in 2016, an estimate that was categorically rejected by the authorities who on several occasions described the enclave’s security situation as "normal".    
Thus, although the number of clashes between the FLEC-FAC and the security forces significantly decreased since the signing of a peace agreement with one of the FLEC branches in 2006, a concrete risk of attacks targeting foreign interests or local oil-related infrastructures remains. As such, several kidnappings of foreign nationals have been reported since the early 2000s.     
In this context, it is strongly advised to avoid any travel to the Cabinda Province, notably in the Buco Zau, Miconje, Massabi and Belize regions due to the ongoing threats on foreign economic operators and convoys circulating in the area. In case of activity in the enclave, it is advisable to approach your consular services and security provider in order to adapt to new security developments.

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Week 03 - 2017

Moldova – Politics – 18/01/2017

Niveau 3

The Moldovan President Igor Dodon is in Moscow since Monday for an official state visit. He met with the Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, for a long discussion. 
GEOS Analysis: 
The Moldovan President Igor Dodon, elected on December 23rd, 2016, is in Moscow for an official state visit since January 16th, his first official visit abroad. He met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin yesterday, discussing with him about the question of the Moldovan emigrated workers in Russia, Transnistria, bilateral trade, and a possible termination of the association agreement signed between Moldova and the European Union (EU), for a new one with Russia. 
Moldova, a landlocked state between Romania and Ukraine, is considered as one of the poorest states in Europe. Moldova’s economy, mainly based on agricultural and wine productions, which were exported to Europe’s other communist countries and USSR, was deprived of these traditional outlets when the USSR collapsed in 1991. Moldovan economic and social context nowadays remains fragile, as demonstrations regularly take place in Chisinau to protest against the low salaries and the deterioration of the purchasing power and life conditions. For example, demonstrations of school and university teachers has been reported these last three days in front of the government siege, asking for a 50% increase of their salaries. The national situation is also affected by the Transnistrian conflict, which began in 1991 with the proclamation of a Moldovan Republic of Transnistria, which is de facto independent from Moldova’s authorities. 
The election at the end of 2016 of Igor Dodon, who is widely seen as pro-Russian, is likely to change the economic and political situation in Moldova. The country did sign an association agreement with the EU at the beginning of July, 2014, which was then the sign of the will to get closer to EU. But Igor Dodon’s declarations in Moscow could change the balance of the region, as he estimated that the association agreement did not bring anything to Moldova, and that he hopes that the next legislative elections will give him the needed majority to terminate this agreement. 
The Moldovan political opposition contests this policy, stating that the economic security of a partnership with EU is stronger and also recalling the previous example of the Ukrainian neighbour, where the same action taken by former President Viktor Yanukovych in 2013 led to the Euromaïdan events and the fall of his regime in February 2014. The economic and social degraded context in Moldova and the corrupted authorities could lead to a similar scenario, all things being equal. It is also possible that Igor Dodon is trying to have it both ways, by getting closer to Russia to obtain from EU more financial help and better guarantees. 
This declared re-orientation towards Russia of Moldovan economy and policy could have consequences on foreign investments coming from Western countries. The choice of Russia is geopolitically justified as Russia is playing an important role in Transnistria since 1991, having there a military base, peace-keeping troops and proposing simplified procedures to get Russian passports to the local population. To solve the Transnistrian problem necessarily imposes to set up an increase cooperation with Russia. The possibility to open the Russian market to Moldovan food products is also an objective of the Russian-Moldovan cooperation, as the economic sanctions that the EU set up after the annexation of Crimea by Russia created a need in this domain on Russian market. 
Therefore, in case of presence in Moldova and especially in Chisinau, it is recommended to maintain an increased level of awareness, and to avoid any gathering with political character, as the risk of clashes between demonstrators and the Police forces could not be neglected, regarding the current context. 

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Week 01 - 2017

United Arab Emirates – Crime – 5/01/2017

Niveau 1

Several criminal incidents have been signalled in the last weeks on the entire Emirati territory. 
GEOS analysis :
Arrests have been reported by the Sharjah authorities on 12/19 including the dismantling of a gang composed of 19 men. Indeed, the latter would have been involved in 4 hold-ups having targeted cash transportations and bank agencies few days ago, located on King Abdul Aziz street (centre-east) in the district of Muweilah (centre) and in the vicinity of a shopping mall in the district of Al Mahra (centre-south) of the Sharjah emirate. Several police officers were injured during these robberies were about 1 million AED (258,567 EUR) was stolen. Furthermore, 3 other criminals were apprehended after burglaries of stores on 12/20 in the same emirate. Likewise, 2 men were arrested on 12/27 in the Northern district of Al Sabkha in Sharjah after a theft of a vehicle was reported in the area of Al Nuaimiya (south) in the neighbouring Emirate of Ajman on 12/25. Moreover, other incidents occured in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the recent days. As such, 4 men dressed as police officers to rob a Chinese citizen in the district of International city of Dubai on the evening of 11/3, were arrested on 12/27. In addition, one man was also apprehended on 12/05 after having burgled a vehicle parked in Abu Dhabi.  
The criminal rate remains stable and low in the United Arab Emirates and the main criminal acts are linked to petty crime. Judiciary authorities of Sharjah announced in that extent on 11/21 that the majority of the cases reported were thefts and burglaries in 2016, and also mentioned a 50% decrease of the criminal acts reported in the emirate comparing to the previous year. Thus, a reinforcement of the security measures this year, including information campaigns on the rule of law, the deployment of at least 44 vehicle security patrols and the increase of security and monitoring cameras, would have contributed to this decrease while the totality of the cases were solved.  
Therefore, it is advised to remain vigilant in order to limit the risk of theft and to avoid traveling in isolated or poorly lighted places. In case of aggression, it is advisable not to oppose any resistance and to yield to the attackers in order to avoid any disproportionate reaction of the latter. In addition, it is also recommended to remain vigilant in the vicinity of ATMs and to favour withdrawals within banks.

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Week 51 - 2016

Ecuador – Tensions – 20/12/2016

Niveau 2

Le ministre de la Sécurité, César Navas, a décrété le 14/12 l’état d’exception pour une durée de 30 jours dans la province frontalière de Morona Santiago (Sud-est).
L’analyse de GEOS :
Cette déclaration, ayant pour conséquence la suspension de certaines libertés individuelles notamment la liberté de circulation, intervient à la suite de l’attaque perpétrée mercredi dernier par plusieurs dizaines de membres armés de la communauté indigène Shuar contre la base d’une entreprise minière chinoise située dans le secteur Esperanza. Alors que des échanges de tirs entre les forces de l’ordre et plusieurs indigènes ont eu lieu au cours de cette attaque, un policier a été abattu et 4 militaires ainsi que 3 policiers ont été blessés. Un important contingent militaire ainsi que des policiers ont été déployés afin d’assurer la sécurité dans la région. 
Cet incident intervient alors que l’exploitation des sites miniers par des entreprises privées en Equateur génère régulièrement des tensions entre le gouvernement de Quito et les différentes communautés indigènes qui occupent historiquement ces zones. Ainsi, le contrat signé entre le gouvernement de Raphael Correa et l’entreprise chinoise Explorcobres, cédant 41 760 hectares de la province de Morona Santiago à cette entité privée, lui permet d’exploiter la zone au détriment des localités existantes et du respect de la propriété privée des communautés locales. Alors qu’un dialogue a été ouvert en octobre dernier entre le gouvernement et la Confederación de Nacionalidades Indígenas de Ecuador (CONAIE) afin de trouver une issue pacifique à ce conflit, plusieurs expropriations impliquant parfois l’intervention des forces de l’ordre ont été dénoncées ces dernières semaines. Parallèlement, des heurts similaires entre des policiers et plusieurs membres de la communauté Shuar aux abords de ce même site minier avait déjà fait 15 blessés le 21 novembre dernier. 
Dans ce contexte, le CONAIE a sollicité jeudi dernier la méditation d’acteurs internationaux tels que l’ONU ou l’OEA (Organisation des Etats Américains) afin d’éviter de nouveaux affrontements. 
Par ailleurs, la signature d’un nouveau contrat entre le gouvernement de Raphael Correa et une entreprise minière canadienne le 14/12, concernant l’exploitation d’une mine d’or et d’argent dans la province voisine de Zamora Chinchipe constitue un élément supplémentaire susceptible d’aggraver les tensions pré existantes entre les communautés indigènes locales et le gouvernement.
Par conséquent en cas de présence en Equateur ces prochains jours, il convient de limiter tout déplacement non essentiel dans les provinces de Morona Santiago et de Zamora Chinchipe. Le cas échéant, il est recommandé d’adopter un profil discret et de faire preuve d’une vigilance accrue.  

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Week 40 - 2016

Turkmenistan - Drug trafficking - 6/10/2016

Niveau 3

The arrest of 12 drug traffickers was announced on 10/4 by the authorities of Turkmenistan, illustrating the persistence of traffic activities, widespread on the territory, particularly concerning drug.
GEOS analysis:
Turkmen authorities did not communicate the exact location of theses arrests but they stated that 2 individuals were arrested on 10/4 and almost 8kg of heroin and 40,000 pills of Tramadol were seized. On the same day, police forces also announced the previous arrest of 10 alleged drug traffickers and the seizure of 20kg of opiates.
Due to its geographic situation and its proximity with production countries of the Golden Crescent (Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan), Turkmenistan remains a privileged transit route for conveying narcotic substances to the Russian and European consummation markets. Traffickers mostly use the route from Serhetabat and Tagtabazar (Mary Region, Southeast), on the Afghan border, to Türkmenabat (Lebap Region, East) near the border with Uzbekistan, or directly to Türkmenbaşy (Balkan Region, West), on the Caspian Sea. Arrests are sporadically reported, notably along the border with Afghanistan but also in some transit places such as Ashgabat Airport, which has been recently renovated to be equipped with new control and security equipment as part of the fight against trafficking.
Since 2015, the government of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow also proceeded with strengthening of security at the border with Afghanistan. This decision comprises the deployment of additional policemen and soldiers and the building project of a 745km wall along the two countries’ border, where some incidents are sporadically reported. An exchange of fire between border-guards and a group of traffickers has been reported in the area in the night of August 4th to 5th, leaving 1 killed and 3 wounded.
If the proliferation of criminal groups – particularly drug trafficking networks – and the infiltration risk of potentially radicalized people concern all of the Central Asian republics, Turkmenistan remains particularly affected due to lasting porosity of its border with Afghanistan. Furthermore, the neutral attitude adopted by Turkmen authorities and the authoritarian nature of the regime contribute to limit the country’s involvement in regional border securing initiatives and mechanisms.
Therefore, in case of local presence and regarding the regional security context, any travel to border areas is strongly discouraged. If necessary, these should be thoroughly prepared, and an adapted security accompaniment is recommended. Furthermore, an authorization from the authorities is necessary for any stay in the South of the country. Finally, due to the authoritarian nature of the Turkmen regime, an increased level of vigilance is advisable under any circumstance throughout the territory.

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India - Crime - 6/10/2016

Niveau 3

Several robberies were committed in recent weeks on the Indian intercity rail network, particularly in the States of Karnataka (Southwest) and Uttar Pradesh (North).
GEOS analysis:
A gang of armed robbers attacked 3 trains stopped near the station of Kanpur (Uttar Pradesh, North) between 0:30am and 1:30am (local hour) on 10/5. These incidents involved lines trains of Gorakhpur-Lokmanya Express Terminal, Vaishali Express and Lucknow-Kanpur. At least 12 passengers were robbed and at least 5 of them were injured when they shown resistance to their attackers.
A similar attack had also been reported in the previous evening, on a Mumbai-Nagercoil Express train, between the Gulbarga and Shahbad stations (Karnataka, Southwest), during which a gang of 7 to 8 robbers also stole money and personal effects of about 70 passengers. Several of them were slightly injured by the attackers.
The intercity lines of the Indian rail network, whose trains run day and night, are regularly targeted by such attacks, usually carried out by armed gangs (firearms or knives). These incidents occur most frequently between two secondary stations of the concerned line in the early morning or late evening and are favoured by a lack of control over the entire network. The latter, which has its own security staff (the Railway Protection Force), suffers from a shortage of officers. The States of Mahārāshtra (Centre-West) and Uttar Pradesh (North) remain the most affected by this type of crime, followed by Madhya Pradesh (Centre), Delhi and Bihar (East), while thousands of thefts are reported each year nationally. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) has recorded 29,686 theft cases among 39,239 criminal incidents across the railway network in 2015, numbers steadily increasing since 2012.
Moreover, the Indian railway network (trains and stations) is affected by other types of crime, such as kidnapping (270 cases reported in 2015), murder (247 cases in 2015) and sexual assault (73 cases in 2015). Although these incidents primarily affect local populations, because of the generally indiscriminate targeting in robbery cases, foreign nationals remain likely to be affected when traveling by train in the country.
Therefore, in case of train travel on the territory, an increased level of vigilance is recommended. In context of business travel, it is advisable to hire a qualified local driver or prefer air flights in case of long distances. Generally in India, it should adopt a discrete attitude and avoid any ostentatious signs of wealth in order to limit criminal risks.

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Week 35 - 2016

Bosnia and Herzegovina - Political tensions - 1/09/2016

Niveau 3

An upsurge in nationalist tensions is observed for several weeks in Republika Srpska, as part of campaign for referendum on the upholding of Republika Srpska (RS) “national day”, scheduled on September 25th.

GEOS analysis:

Celebrated every January 9th to commemorate the Republika Srpska creation in 1992, this festival had been judged unconstitutional by the Bosnian Constitutional Court in November 2015 – as considered discriminatory regarding non-Serbs populations –, causing strong reactions from the Banja Luka (RS) authorities, and especially from Mirolad Dodik, the President of this autonomous republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The latter thus unilaterally summoned a referendum on September 25th, one week before the local elections (October 2nd). However, Bosniaks Members of the Legislative Assembly of Republika Srpska, as Sarajevo’s authorities, consider this vote as a reconsideration of the Dayton Peace Agreement (1992) and expressed their concern over the first step towards a self-determination referendum it could constitute. Several Bosniaks deputies thus officially wrote to Bosnian Prime Minister Denis Zvizdic, to ban the referendum whereas President of Republika Srpska went to Belgrade (Serbia) today (September 1st), to meet President Tomislav Nikolic and Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, the latter benefiting from significant influence within Serbian community.
This upsurge in tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina falls within a larger context of nationalisms revival in the Western Balkans, where identity issues, and especially denominational, remain significant, particularly in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Indeed, “anti-terrorist” exercises were conjointly conducted on August 27th and 28th on the Serbian border (East), between police forces of the Republic of Serbia and Republika Srpska, without any representative of Sarajevo’s power. In parallel, the so-called “green-berets” Bosniak paramilitary group, for its own part, organized a veteran’s parade, while officially requesting a military equipment, weapons and ammunitions loan from Bosnian army. Furthermore, a revival of tensions between Serbia and Croatia has been observed in August, notably following a controversial statement of the Croatian Interior Minister criticizing the upholding of Serbian language and Cyrillic alphabet in Vukovar (Croatia, East). Moreover, the creation of a Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia on Bosnian territory – abandoned project since 1994 – has been put back on agenda by Bozo Ljubic, President of Central Council of the Croatian Assembly of Bosnia-Herzegovina. These developments, likely to weaken the regional security environment, raise the concern of the European Union, which made the intercommunity reconciliation a priority in the region.
Therefore, in case of local presence and regarding the security context not only in Republika Srpska but also in the main agglomerations of the country as Sarajevo and Mostar, it is recommended to adopt an increased level of vigilance. Furthermore, considering the political context, broach the issue in the presence of locals should be avoided, the latter being particularly sensitive.

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Ethiopie: Demonstrations - 1/09/2016

Niveau 3

Amhara anti-governmental protests reported over the last weeks have conducted to the degradation of several horticultural farms owned by foreign companies. 

GEOS analysis: 

Indeed, according to local sources, at least 9 out of the 12 horticulture exploitations based in Bahir Dar (Amhara Region, North-West) were ransacked and/or burnt down in the margins of antigovernment protests started in the beginning of August 2016. Thus, a Dutch businessman who owns 13 kilometers square of land for exploitation complained after a “large group” of people invaded his farm on August 29th, causing about 7 million euros ($7.8 million) of damages. Also, local Medias have reported that 2 flower farms in Meshenti town (South of Bahir Dar) were set on fire by Ethiopian protesters during the last week of August. Like so, some of the 9 vandalised lands belonged to foreign companies – Dutch, Israeli, Italy, Indian and Belgian.  
Those incidents illustrate the aggravation of the local situation due to the social and political contestation movements observed in Amhara region – and other part of the country – while government have set up incentive measures over the last years to develop horticultural industry. In this way, the State who is the only owner of lands in Ethiopian conceded 170.000 kilometers of lands to local and foreign investors, contributing by this way to lead Ethiopia at the second rank in flower export in Africa after Kenya. 
Indeed, the favorable climatic conditions for those cultures in addition of the implication of the government to ease local and foreign investments have led to a quick increase of the sector. Low production costs, the proximity of lands with the International Airport of Bahir Dar (North-West) where government has installed a freeze chamber to facilitate the conservation as well as the export of goods were also factors willing to foster investments in this sector. Eventually, the horticulture industry has conduct to the creation of more than 100.000 jobs over the country in the last 5 years, including 3.000 in Bahir Dar town; in consequence, the industry plays a major part in the social conditions of local populations. 
However, the horticultural industry progress didn’t evacuate the differences observed in terms of development among main ethnic groups despite the economic growth of the country. As such, Amhara and Oromia communities not only denounced the political domination of Tigray and their own marginalization but also the enrichment of the ruling community in recent years at the expense of the rest of the population. In this context, incidents reported in Amhara, mainly at Bahir Dar and Gondar, and in Oromia regions are likely to continue in the coming months despite the systematic deployment of security forces and could represent an increasing risk for economic investors who previously benefited from the relative national stability. 
In this context, and in case of activity in the Amhara region, it is advisable to keep oneself informed of the evolution of the social and political situation due to the risk of clashes. Moreover, in case of investment projects in Ethiopia, it is recommended to take into account of the specific national context during a careful preliminary investigation in order to limit the risk of future losses or disorders. 

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Week 05 - 2016

Novosibirsk Oblast, Novosibirsk: Criminality - 09/02/2016

Niveau 3

The robbery of a pawnbroker was reported this afternoon in Novosibirsk, without causing casualties.
GEOS analysis:
The assault committed by a gunman took place in the Station area and a suspect was quickly arrested. Furthermore, the robbery of an ATM was reported this night in Novosibirsk, in Kirov Raion, in the south of the city.

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Yemen, Governorates of Chabwah and Abyan (South), Rawda and Maraqesha: Attacks - 04/02/2016

Niveau 5

12 members of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) were killed by drone strikes in the South of the country these recent days.
GEOS analysis:
A drone attack killed this morning 6 jihadists affiliated to AQAP aboard their vehicle in the town of Rawda, located in the desert area of the governorate of Chabwah (South). Moreover, in the night of 3 to 02/04, a similar attack targeted activists of this organisation in the locality of Maraqesha, in the governorate of Abyan in the South.

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State of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro: Carnival - 03/02/2016

Niveau 3

A few days before the opening ceremony of the Rio carnival, the Federal Police has announced the strengthening of the security device from Friday.
GEOS analysis:
While local authorities hope to welcome nearly 1 million tourists, Road Federal Police has announced the implementation of the "Operation Carnival" during the duration of the festivities (from February 5th to 9th), particularly on main roads of Rio de Janeiro…

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Kenya, County of Kisumu: Criminality - 02/02/2016

Niveau 4

A couple has been shot dead by unidentified gunmen, yesterday, at their house, in the south of Kisumu (West).
GEOS Analysis: 
According to local sources, gunmen would have entered their house, located in the popular district of Nyalenda (South), yesterday, around 3am (local time) and then killed them – gunfire having been reported by residents – before fleeing.

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Week 03 - 2016

Malaysia, Malacca State (South), Strait of Malacca: Maritime piracy - 01/20/2016

Niveau 3

The Malaysian authorities have issued an alert this morning on maritime activities off the state of Malacca.
GEOS analysis:
​According to the Malaysian Marine Police, several cases of extortion involving suspected pirates posing as the Indonesian Navy have been reported in recent weeks. These actions have yet all been directed against…

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Papua New Guinea, Oro Province: Aggression - 01/13/2016

Niveau 4

Several suspects were arrested today by local authorities after the assault of a US-British couple by a local armed group, reported on the Kokoda trekking track (Oro Province).
GEOS analysis:
The attack happened Monday and was confirmed by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs, which stated the couple was traveling alone in Kokoda sector. The two foreigners, whose valuables were stolen by the attackers, were also violently assaulted during the attack.

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Center African Republic: Elections - 01/13/2016

Niveau 5

Political tensions remain high in Center African Republic as several political actors called for a new vote count following the first round of the presidential election.
​GEOS analysis:
The Alliance of democratic forces for transition (AFDT) required yesterday an audit of the computer system of the National Elections Authority (ANE) as well as a new manual vote count for the presidential election of December 30th. In fact, the AFDT is convinced that around 230 000 votes were not recorded by the authorities between the partial results of January 6th and those published the next day.

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Turkey, Istanbul, District of Fatih (Centre), Sultanahmet place: Attack - 01/12/2016

Niveau 3

A suicide-attack was reported this morning on the Sultanahmet place in the historic centre of Istanbul, killing 10 foreign tourists.
GEOS analysis:
The Turkish authorities confirmed that a suicide attack targeting, this morning, the touristic Sultanahmet place located in the district of Fatih in the centre of Istanbul, killed 10 foreign nationals including 9 Germans and a Peruvian.

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Week 01 - 2016

Myanmar, Rakhine States (West): Clashes - 01/05/2016

Niveau 3

Sporadic clashes are reported since more than 10 days between the Burmese Army and the Arakan Army elements (AA) near the town of Kyauktaw (Rakhine State, West).
GEOS analysis:
​According to local sources, first clashes erupted on December 27 near Ram Chaung, on Kyautkaw outskirts which is located about 70km north of Sittwe, between a patrol of the Burmese army and the AA fighters. Clashes are then reported on a daily basis around…

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Iran, Tehran: Tensions - 01/04/2016

Niveau 3

The situation remains tense in Tehran near the embassy of Saudi Arabia after the attack of this latter located in the North of the city.
GEOS analysis:
​Protests are likely to continue near the Saudi diplomatic representation along Boustan Street, located between the districts of Sahebqaraniyeh and Chamran in the North of the Iranian capital, after protests that generated violence in the night of Saturday to Sunday, denouncing the execution of an influential Shiite religious leader by the Saudi authorities on 1/02.

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Ghana: Road blockers - 12/31/2015

Niveau 3

The Ghanaian police has cautioned the public to be security conscious over the risk of road blockers’ attacks on the Accra-Kumasi highway.
GEOS analysis:
​In a statement released on Tuesday, Eastern Regional Police Commander (South) warned the users over the risk of increasing robbery attacks on the main commercial road of the country, most notably on the Nkawkaw stretch.

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Bolivia, Province of Santa Cruz (East), San Matías: Military deployment - 12/30/2015

Niveau 2

The government announced a military deployment in the municipality of San Matías (Province of Santa Cruz, East), located at the border with Brazil.
GEOS analysis:
​Ministers of Interior and Defense confirmed the day before yesterday a partial militarisation of the border with Brazil, as a significant increase of homicides, kidnappings and smuggling was reported in this area for the last 2 months.

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Week 51 - 2015

Tajikistan: Security situation - 12/17/2015

Niveau 3

While the political and security situation in Tajikistan remains fragile, the authorities are continuing their operations against terrorism, targeting radical religious movements in the country, and to secure the Afghan border.
GEOS analysis:
​The terrorist threat, emanating mainly at a regional scale from religious radicalism, remains a major concern for the authorities, while Tajikistan is still facing a persistent presence on its territory of banned religious or political groups, labeled terrorists.

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Niger, Niamey: Tensions - 17/12/2015

Niveau 4

The political situation remains confused in Niamey after the arrest of military officers of the Niger Army these last few days.
GEOS analysis:
​Members of Defence and Security forces amid them a former chief of staff and two commanding officers of the Niamey Air base and of the Tillabéry Artillery Battalion were arrested on Monday in Niamey, provoking a political confusion and fueling rumors of an attempted coup.

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Mexico, State of Jalisco (West), Lagos de Moreno: Armed confrontation - 12/17/2015

Niveau 4

An armed confrontation between presumed criminals and security forces caused 2 dead and 2 wounded in Lagos de Moreno municipality, in the State of Jalisco (West).
GEOS analysis:
​Local police sources said that security forces had been informed in the night of Monday to Tuesday of the presence of a suspicious convoy involving armed civilians between the towns of Encarnación de Díaz and Lagos de Moreno, in northern Jalisco.

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Kenya, Nairobi: Criminality - 12/15/2015

Niveau 4

An officer of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) was shot dead this night as part of an armed robbery near his residence in the north of Nairobi.
GEOS analysis:
According to local sources, while the officer was coming back home in Kiamumbi (north of Nairobi) by car, the condition of the road would have forced him to stop around 4am (local time). 3 individuals would then have offered their help before shooting the officer and stealing money and other items belonging to him, fleeing on foot.

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Week 49 - 2015

Iran, Tehran: Security - 12/04/2015

Niveau 3

The security measures were reinforced these recent days in Tehran due to the degraded regional context.
GEOS analysis
​Policemen armed and equipped with bulletproof vests are indeed mobilised for several days in Tehran in the context of the reinforcement of the security measures in the Iranian capital.

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Nigeria, South-East : Strengthening of the tensions - 12/03/2015

Niveau 4

Tensions between Biafran separatists and security forces are likely to strengthen and generate incidents in the coming days in south-eastern Nigeria after the death of nine people yesterday in Onitsha (Anambra State).
GEOS analysis
​Members of the Biafran separatist groups Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and Movement for the Update of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) had started on Tuesday a blocking operation of the Niger Bridge Head in Onitsha, important economic center of the Anambra State (southeast), to demand the release of Nnamdi Kanu, one of the leaders of the IPOB who was arrested in last October for "terrorism." This blocking resulted in…

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Afghanistan, Kabul: Security - 12/01/2015

Niveau 5

The risk of attacks remains high in Kabul as illustrated by the new alert message sent yesterday by the US Embassy to its nationals present in the capital.
GEOS analysis
​Yesterday afternoon, the Embassy of the United States issued a message indicating an imminent threat against an unspecified target, but frequented by Western nationals (including Americans), in Kabul during the next 48 hours.

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Russia - Turkey: Sanctions - 12/01/2015

Niveau 3

Russia announced last weekend a first series of economic sanctions against Turkey following the crash of one of its bombers, downed by Turkish authorities along the Syrian border on 11/24.
GEOS analysis
​This incident led to a significant increase in tensions between the two States, which have broken off diplomatic relations since then. Serious impacts should be expected in the coming months over several areas and that could affect many States...

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Week 47 - 2015

Mali: Hostage-taking - 11/20/2015

Niveau 5

An attack is underway in Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, located in ACI 2000 Business district (center). A hostage-taking was reported within the establishment.
GEOS analysis :
​Individuals armed with assault rifles opened fire this morning around 7 am (local) inside Bamako’s Radisson hotel frequented by foreigners and MINUSMA military personnel. Shootings still ongoing...

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Bosnia and Herzegovina: Attack - 11/19/2015

Niveau 3

A gunman attacked several soldiers near an army barrack on Sarajevo outskirts last night. The assessment reports 3 casualties and at least 4 wounded...
GEOS analysis :
The attack, described as terrorist by the prosecutor's office, occurred yesterday near the Rajlovac army barrack, on Sarajevo outskirts. Prime Minister Denis Zvizdic promptly ordered a general security strengthening...

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South Sudan: Safety - 11/19/2015

Niveau 5

A bus was attacked this morning by armed men on the Juba-Nimule road axis in Magwi province (south). A provisional assessment reports 5 casualties and several wounded.
GEOS analysis :
Gunmen attacked a bus this morning around 6:20 (local) along the Juba-Nimule road axis (south) to Kampala (Uganda), near Moli Tokuro..

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Algeria: Safety - 11/19/2015

Niveau 4

A terrorism support cell was dismantled in the Algiers and Boumerdes (north) wilayas.
GEOS analysis :
Algerian security forces announced yesterday the arrest of 3 individuals suspected of supporting jihadist groups that operating in the Boumerdes, Tizi Ouzou and Bouira (north) maquis. Two of them have been arrested on 11/17...

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Week 30 - 2015

India, State of Jharkhand (East), Jamshedpur: Tensions - 07/22/2015

Niveau 3

The Indian authorities announced this morning the reduction of curfew times, implemented yesterday in the Jamshedpur urban area (State of Jharkhand, East), after violent clashes between Muslims and Hindus on Monday. 
GEOS Analysis:
​These cross-community clashes started Monday evening in the Ghandi Maidan district when members of a community insulted a young girl from another community, causing a fight with the locals which rapidly increased and led to clashes between the two parties...

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Cameroon : Terrorist attacks - 07/22/2015

Niveau 3

Two suicide-bombings were reported this afternoon in Maroua, capital-town of the Far North region. At least a dozen of people killed.
GEOS’s analysis:
According to security sources, two young girls wearing burqas committed a double suicide-bombing at 2:45PM (local time) today on Maroua’s main market and on a second market of the town, located in the Haoussa district. The blasts resulted in at least a dozen people killed as the targeted places were crowded at this time of the day...

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Turkey: Security - 07/21/2015

Niveau 3

Gatherings of pro-Kurdish militants provoked clashes with security forces yesterday evening, near the Taksim Square, in the Beyoglu district, in Istanbul. 
GEOS Analysis:
Clashes between militants and security forces were reported yesterday evening during spontaneous gatherings, uniting pro-Kurdish activists, in the vicinity of the Taksim Square, in the Beyoglu district. The latters denounced, according to them, the failure of R.T. Erdogan and the AKP (Islamist main party) government to fight against the Islamic State (IS) threat in Turkey. Significant security measures were deployed, using tear gas, water cannons and stunt grenades in order to disperse the demonstrators, who then moved to the Istiklal Avenue (Centre), where clashes were also signalled...

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Ukraine: Cease-fire situation - 07/20/2015

Niveau 3

Three civilians and an Ukrainian soldier have been killed this week-end in western Ukraine.
GEOS analysis:
The Donbass separatists press service announced that three civilians have been killed during intense shelling from the Ukrainian army on Donetsk. Hospital number 23, in Donetsk central district of Kuibutchivsky has been hit, injuring a doctor. Ukrainian army, by the voice of his spokesman, announced that one of its soldier had been killed and 5 others injured in Donetsk oblast....

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